Anibal Pordomingo reports that Argentinean agriculture is in deep trouble. Many Argentineans decide to buy into the "high grain prices forever" scenario, liquidated their cattle operations, and thereby lost their famed economic resiliency. Traditionally, farms in the Argentine pampas region rotated permanent pastures with crops on a five year in pasture, three years in crops basis. This allowed them to grow their grain crops with no nitrogen inputs. All of this was given up for a grain following grain policy and the heavy use of purchased inputs. Now the input costs are more than the crops bring, but the government has not relaxed its high export taxes. Consequently, most farmers have stored their grain production and only sell a little as cash is needed. Rough estimates for 2009 harvest are that wheat production will be down 40%, soybeans 30% and corn 40%. Some of the land will remain unplanted and will just go to a weed fallow. This land would ordinarily go back to pasture but the government is preventing beef exports to keep the domestic price low to calm restive urbanites. Consequently, beef abattoirs are full of unsold meat even as domestic beef consumption hits record levels. Currently, two pounds of finished beef will not buy a small pack of bubblegum and young brood cows are selling for $100 a piece. Farmland lease prices are dropping and major crop marketing pools are not operating. On top of all of this, the pampas region is mired in a severe multi-year drought. Anibal said most producers are so disoriented that they do not have a clue as to what direction to go. He said the only farmers who are still doing well are those who stuck with the proven pasture/crop rotation and kept grassfed beef production as a major proportion of their cropping mix.

Whole Foods Market appears to be following in the footsteps of Starbucks Coffee and suffering from a too aggressive expansion program and a flattening of sales per store. Once the darling of Wall Street, Whole Foods has seen its stock price fall from the mid-70 dollar range to the mid-teens. The Wall Street Journal yesterday said the chain planned to reduce store openings and has been reneging on previously signed leases. In Seattle, Whole Foods has been trying to get out of a 60,000 square foot lease in a development under construction and downsize it to one of 40,000 square feet. It also wanted to delay opening the store for a year due to the current unsettled market conditions. The developer is suing. Sales growth per store which had been in double digits has fallen to around one percent this year as the economy has worsened. Often derided as "Whole Paycheck" for its expensive prices, Whole Foods has been trying to escape its expensive image with discounts and promotions. "Two to three years ago, it was cool to shop at Whole Foods," said Edward Aaron a stock analyst. "Now you might say it is cool to shop at Costco."

The animal rights movement is moving to the political center according to The New York Times Magazine. The Humane Society, Farm Sanctuary and PETA are all re-framing their messages into one that they hope meat eaters, conservative Republicans and the clergy can support. Their theme is now "animal protection" and the ending of the most egregious practices of industrial animal agriculture through the use of state ballot initiatives. Their current targets are the use of cages in egg production, farrowing crates and veal crates. All three of these practices have already been banned in Europe. The Humane Society’s new president, Wayne Pacelle, insists that the Society’s message remain both non-partisan and not anti-meat. So far, this approach appears to be working as the society has been able to enlist high-profile Republicans such as Bush speechwriter, Matthew Scully, and a broad spectrum of religious leaders from all faiths to endorse its new goals. The Humane Society plans to use the National Rifle Association as its model and currently has s10.3 million members and a budget of $127 million. Their long-term goal is the ending of all confinement animal agriculture through state ballot initiatives, lobbying and continued media exposure of its worst abuses.

So, who is the big winner in the 2008 corn crop profit competition? Apparently, those farmers who took their feeder cattle to the corn field and grazed it off last summer. According to University of Nebraska Livestock Extension Specialist, Terry Gompert, a group of farmers from Fordyce, Nebraska, estimated based upon a 200 bushel yield that they saved $170 an acre and $100 per head by grazing it last summer when oil prices were soaring.. "During high energy prices, the advantage to grazing crops compared to traditional harvest, storage and feedlot is huge," Gompert said. Also, these farmers, in effect, sold their corn crop at the summer high price of $7.00 a bushel rather than this fall’s $3.80. That was worth an additional $640 an acre. All told, grazing added $810 an acre in profit to corn crop.

Bill Niman is hoping for a meat industry comeback with 100% pastured goat meat, according to today’s New York Times. Niman, who founded Niman Ranch Meats, sold a majority stake in his company to a group of investors who installed management that refused to follow his stringent production protocols for pork and beef. Disgusted, he left the company with just a small severance check, a small amount of stock and no rights to ever use his name in the meat business. Niman had great success with his pasture-farrowed pork in the 1990's but was insistent that beef had to be finished on grain for quality. He subsequently lost many of his high-end West Coast restaurant beef customers to more fashionable grassfed beef after Alice Waters of Chez Panisse Restaurant dropped him for an all-grassfed menu in 2002. Now a convert to no-grain pastured meats, he is selling pastured goat meat under the BN Ranch label. The mild flavored goat meat appears to be a hit with chefs on both coasts and was described by The New York Times as similar to lamb "but with a big personality." Chef and owner, Christopher Lee of Eccolo in Berkeley, California, predicts a bright future for pastured goat meat. "We’ve cooked every part of the lamb a million times and we all know about grass-fed beef and aging beef," said. "The goat is the next big thing."

Economic problems have dropped liveweight prices for organic grassfed beeves by five to 15 cents a pound since September according to OFARM. Current prices for 1000 to 1200 pound organic grassfed steers are $1.40 to $1.65 compared to $1.65 - $1.70 last month. Grainfed was reported selling at between $1.22 and $1.80 compared to $1.55 to $1.80 in September. Five hundred pound organic feeders were bringing $1.46 to $1.50 down from $1.65 to $1.70. Seven hundred pound feeders were $1.40 to $1.50 down ten to 15 cents from last month. Cull dairy cows were 50 to 55 cents per pound and cull beef cows were 65-70 cents, both down a dime from last month. Dairy steers in the 1050 to 1300 pound range were bringing 80 to 90 cents a pound, up slightly from last month. The rising price of dairy steers reflects the growing demand for "gourmet" organic hamburgers in upscale restaurants. OFARM target prices for February 2009 grassfed beeves were $1.85 to $1.90 a pound and $2.10 to $2.15 for September 2009. Dairy steers were target priced at $1.85 to $1.90 for September 2009. The prices shown here reflect grassfed animals of 100% beef genetics, in truckload lots with zero shrink, a finish goal of 20 to 24 months, fed zero levels of grain and with no price difference between steers and heifers. Thanks to Angela Jackson for providing these prices.